Comp Categorization: Active, Pending, Sold, Expired—What Each One Tells You

Four comp categories tell four different stories. The CMA that includes all four reads the market better than the CMA built on closed sales alone.

Sold (closed). The historical record—what buyers paid for properties like the subject within the analysis window. The foundation of value. Strongest within 90 days; useful with time-adjustment to 180 days; cautionary beyond that.

Active. The current competition. The buyer pool comparing your subject is also evaluating these. Active median price and median DOM reveal what the market is currently absorbing. If the active median is 5% above recent solds, sellers are pricing aspirationally and many will reduce; if active median is 3% below solds, sellers are pricing competitively and your subject must too.

Pending. Most predictive of where the market is heading. A pending listing went under contract recently, meaning a buyer chose it at its terms. The pending price doesn't appear in MLS data until close, but the listed price is visible. Pending counts also signal absorption: rising pending count means demand strengthening; falling pending count means demand softening. Track pending velocity weekly in fast markets.

Expired and withdrawn. The cautionary set. Expired = listing reached contract expiration without a sale. Withdrawn = listing pulled by seller. Both signal mispricing or condition issues. Examining expired listings reveals the price ceiling—where the market said no. Patterns of expireds clustered 3-5% above sold comps mean the market won't pay that level. Patterns of expireds at sold-comp levels mean the listings had non-price issues (condition, marketing, agent).

How to weight. Sold comps drive the base number. Active comps adjust for current competition. Pending comps adjust for trajectory. Expireds set the ceiling.

What trips agents up. (1) Showing only solds. The seller sees the historical record but not the current market. (2) Ignoring expireds because they're awkward. The expired patterns are the most honest data in the analysis. (3) Treating pendings as equivalent to solds. Pendings haven't closed yet—they can re-trade or fall out. Use pending list price as forward-looking signal, not as comp value.

Document all four categories in the CMA. Sellers respect comprehensive analysis. Single-category CMAs read as agent shortcuts.